Global Warming

Major Solar Flare

A major solar flare associated with a new, giant sunspot, indicates increasing solar activity as our Sun approaches its 11-year peak (maximum is forecast to occur in 2011). If the sunspot count is particularly high this cycle, we can expect increasing global temperatures as the predominant climatological change generator (the Sun) heats up the planet.

From SpaceWeather.com:

Earth-orbiting satellites detected a major X9-class solar flare this morning at 1035 UT (5:35 a.m. EST). The source: big, new sunspot 929, which is emerging over the Sun’s eastern limb. GOES-13 captured this X-ray image of the blast:

Because of the sunspot’s location near the limb, the flare was not Earth-directed. Future eruptions could be, however, because the Sun’s spin is turning the spot toward Earth. Sunspot 929 will be visible for the next two weeks as it glides across the solar disk.

Al Gore and his band of Greenbats ought to get a clue about actual climate science. How dare they compare anthropogenic climate effects to those of this giant stellar monster? HOW DARE THEY?

Climate Clues

I recently read a report on the CO2 Science website in which the author analyzed a paper published in Space Science Reviews about solar influence on the climate over the past several thousand years.

The study provides more evidence of the actual effects taking place as a result of solar fluctuations; it completely disarms the notion of the “hockey stick” climate model and discredits politically-motivated and disingenuous individuals and groups who claim that warming is largely the result of human industrial activities.

In spite of each additional Climate Clue, global warming alarmists remain clueless. Read on . . .

Continue reading…

The Indefensible Hockey Stick

I read an interesting report written by John L. Daly about the emergence of the “hockey stick” paradigm. The “hockey stick” (since the shape of the graph resembles one) graph emerged in 1995 and purports to depict average global temperatures over the last 1000 years or so. The basis of this paradigm, however, can be shown to be flawed.

At the behest of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Dr. Michael Mann of the Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts wrote a report containing the questionable climate graph.

The “Hockey Stick”

To get the graph, the good doctor grafted data obtained from tree rings worldwide onto the more recent average global temperature data. This is inherently not a good practice to mix data from two completely different sources. Moreover, tree rings are influenced by many factors other than temperature, and the conclusions probably contain errors. Nonetheless, the IPCC immediately embraced the report as evidence that there was “a discernible human influence on global climate.”

John L. Daly in his article The “Hockey Stick” – A New Low in Climate Science presents 14 exhibits of climate science that completely discredit the “hockey stick.” Daly also shows how the biased media can make “stars” out of their favorite scientists as they did with Dr. Mann. This “star” status reduces science to the level of Hollywood, according to Daly.

The graph below shows worldwide temperatures since the last ice age which occurred over ten thousand years ago. The data used to plot this graph have been assembled from reliable scientific research. Notice that over the last 1000 years (see inset), the temperature dropped from the medieval warm period down to the “little ice age” and rebounded since that time. Why, then, does the “hockey stick” not show this? The answer is simple — the “hockey stick” contains flawed data prior to 1900 AD. Notice also that there’s nothing remarkable about the current warming bubble. If solar activity continues to increase, there’s not much anybody can do about it, but will it be that bad or will we simply adapt?

Supporters of the “hockey stick” defend their model by suggesting that the little ice age and medieval warm periods were confined to the northern hemisphere or to Europe. That’s simply not the case according to Daly’s report and to NASA – I prepared a three-phase review on why solar activity is the primary cause of climate fluctuation. In that review, I utilized NASA’s graphics and sunspot data. Together, these demonstrate the world-wide nature of climate fluctuation. Conclusions that I made in that review apply equally to this subject:

  1. The media will print or broadcast sensationalized headlines to sell copy regardless of scientific value
  2. The media will print or broadcast manipulated science with half-truths and invalid conclusions to damage politicians with whom they do not agree
  3. Politicians seize on these unverified claims in order to blame their opponents
  4. Uneducated/uninformed people are as gullible as ever

And one more conclusion:

  • The United Nations is NOT our friend – get us out NOW

References:

John L. Daly:

World Climate Report:

CO2 Science:

Sea Level vs. Global Temperature

In a previous article, I established that the average global temperature has generally risen over the past century. The graphic to the right (courtesy NOAA) clearly shows this temperature increase. There is little doubt that the planet is warming and that global temperature trends over the past 400 years have been directly proportional to observed solar activity. Sunspot counts are high when temperatures increase, and
low when temperatures decrease.

The graphic to the left (Courtesy CO2 Science) shows sea level and rate of sea level change over the past 200 years or so. A quick observation shows sea levels decreased from 1800 to 1860 at which time a minimum level reversed. Note also that the rate of sea level change (the bottom line on the graph) turned toward a higher rate of change just prior to that time. Note also that the rate of change went from negative to positive at the same time the minimum sea level occurred. You can also see that sea levels have steadily increased during the portion of the graph where the rate of change is positive. Finally, note that the rate of change peaked out around 1950 and dropped into a trough and then another peak, lower than the 1950 peak, around 1998 or so.

What’s the point? Well, if global warming is melting the ice caps and glaciers, one might expect that the rate of sea level change would also be increasing — but that’s not true according to the graph above. Since 1950 or so, global temperatures increased but the rate of sea level rise has not increased. Moreover there is considerable evidence that Antartic ice sheets are becoming thicker.

The matter of sea level change is discussed by the editors at CO2 Science who conclude the editorial with the following insightful remarks:

Clearly, either something is drastically wrong with climate-alarmist theory, or something is drastically wrong with the pertinent real-world data. Although many people choose to believe the theory over the data – or they promote the theory in spite of believing the data (or they simply ignore the data) for philosophical or political reasons – we find it much more compelling – and satisfying – to both believe the data and act in harmony with that belief.

So we ask you what we ask ourselves almost every day: what do you believe? … why do you believe it? … and how do you act in light of that belief?

Finally, quoting the famous author Michael Crichton . . .

Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.

No More Major Hurricanes in ’06

Researchers at Colorado State University are forecasting that no more major hurricanes will make landfall for the remainder of the 2006 hurricane season.

From Colorado State University:

FORT COLLINS – Developing El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific have led the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State to continue to call for below-average activity for the remainder of the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

The forecasting team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray today released a new report that calls for two more named storms, one more hurricane and no more intense or major (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season (October-November). With the observed activity through September 2006 of nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, a total of 11 named storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic basin during 2006 with six of these predicted to become hurricanes. Two major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater have already formed, and the forecast team does not expect any more major hurricane formations this year.

Inset: Dr. Gray and PhD candidate Klotzbach (photo credit CSU)

There were a couple of interesting FAQs on their website:

Q: Why are there fewer hurricanes at this time in 2006 than there were in 2005?
A: The 2005 hurricane season was very active, especially during the early part of the season (June-July). Although we believe the 2006 hurricane season will end up being close to the average season that occurred between 1950 and 2000, conditions for hurricane development are not as favorable this year as they were at this time last year. Some of the conditions that are less favorable this year are:

  1. Cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
  2. Dryer tropical Atlantic mid-level atmosphere
  3. Higher tropical Atlantic sea level pressures
  4. Stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear
  5. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific, possibly indicating the development of El Niño conditions this fall/winter.

Q: We’ve had a lot more activity in the Atlantic since 1995. Is global warming the cause of this increased activity?
A: The Atlantic basin tends to go through periods of about 25-35 years with heightened major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane activity and then similar periods of about 25-35 years with less activity. We believe that these multi-decadal variations are mostly due to changes in large-scale ocean circulations referred to as the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation.

How inconvenient this must be for global warming alarmists!

An interesting related article “Hurricane Data Not Cooperating,” from World Climate Report discusses how the hurricane cycle works and that global warming is not involved.

Europe Greener in Spite of Climate Worries

The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change recently reviewed a study by European scientists to estimate changes in vegetation in the European continent between 1982 and 1999. The Center published an online report analyzing the study entitled Land Surface Temperatures and Plant Productivity of Europe: 1982-1999. The report deflates global warming and greenhouse gas disaster claims made by alarmists and political opportunists. The Center’s conclusion is as follows:

Considering the results in total, the Dutch and Spanish researchers conclude that, over the last two decades of the 20th century, “Europe as a whole has a tendency to greening,” and much of it is “seeing an increase in its wood land proportion.”

Within the context of today’s obsession over the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content and the many environmental catastrophes it has been predicted to produce, this observation is rather remarkable, in view of the fact that the world’s climate alarmists claim the CO2-induced global warming of the last two decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last two millennia, and that this phenomenon is claimed to be the greatest threat ever to be faced by the planet (worse, even, than nuclear warfare and global terrorism).

Apparently the climate and vegetation of Europe have not been informed that their recent actions are not politically correct!

The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change operates an excellent website that features a new lineup of articles every Wednesday. Please have a look at this interesting and informative website.

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