Cap'n Bob & the Damsel

Environment

No More Major Hurricanes in ’06

Researchers at Colorado State University are forecasting that no more major hurricanes will make landfall for the remainder of the 2006 hurricane season.

From Colorado State University:

FORT COLLINS – Developing El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific have led the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State to continue to call for below-average activity for the remainder of the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

The forecasting team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray today released a new report that calls for two more named storms, one more hurricane and no more intense or major (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season (October-November). With the observed activity through September 2006 of nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, a total of 11 named storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic basin during 2006 with six of these predicted to become hurricanes. Two major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater have already formed, and the forecast team does not expect any more major hurricane formations this year.

Inset: Dr. Gray and PhD candidate Klotzbach (photo credit CSU)

There were a couple of interesting FAQs on their website:

Q: Why are there fewer hurricanes at this time in 2006 than there were in 2005?
A: The 2005 hurricane season was very active, especially during the early part of the season (June-July). Although we believe the 2006 hurricane season will end up being close to the average season that occurred between 1950 and 2000, conditions for hurricane development are not as favorable this year as they were at this time last year. Some of the conditions that are less favorable this year are:

  1. Cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
  2. Dryer tropical Atlantic mid-level atmosphere
  3. Higher tropical Atlantic sea level pressures
  4. Stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear
  5. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific, possibly indicating the development of El Niño conditions this fall/winter.

Q: We’ve had a lot more activity in the Atlantic since 1995. Is global warming the cause of this increased activity?
A: The Atlantic basin tends to go through periods of about 25-35 years with heightened major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane activity and then similar periods of about 25-35 years with less activity. We believe that these multi-decadal variations are mostly due to changes in large-scale ocean circulations referred to as the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation.

How inconvenient this must be for global warming alarmists!

An interesting related article “Hurricane Data Not Cooperating,” from World Climate Report discusses how the hurricane cycle works and that global warming is not involved.

03 Oct 2006 by Environment Global Warming

West Coast Tropical Storms

Is Southern California about to get a rare weather event? Some meteorologists think that Hurricane John, currently rampaging through Cabo San Lucas, may go as far north as Los Angeles.

From Wikipedia:

1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm

The 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, once a hurricane, was the only Eastern Pacific tropical storm to hit California in known history. The only other tropical cyclone to directly affect California is the 1858 San Diego Hurricane.

Storm History

On September 15, a tropical depression formed off the coast of Panama. It quickly strengthened into a hurricane. It tracked northward, instead of the usual westward movement of a typical Eastern Pacific hurricane. The hurricane likely was strong, as it needed to maintain its winds to a northerly latitude. The hurricane’s minimum measured pressure of 28.67 in Hg occurred on September 22. An upper level trough turned it to the northeast, where it weakened due to the cool waters.

Shortly before making landfall on September 25, it weakened to a tropical storm. The storm still managed to hit Long Beach, California as a 50 mph tropical storm, making it the only tropical cyclone in recorded history to hit the state of California. The storm quickly weakened over land, and likely dissipated within a day or two.

My Mom was a 19-year-old newlywed living in Long Beach at the time. She used to tell me about the great hurricane of ’39 and embellish her recount with tales of power blackouts with shutters and screen doors blown off of her house.

01 Sep 2006 by California Environment

Wake Island No More?

UPDATE: Coast Guard Flyover Photos

A reef, a blue lagoon and a coral atoll just barely out of the water — Wake Island may have been completely swept away by Super Typhoon Ioke.

Wake Island — Google Earth Image

From Voice of America

Super Typhoon Ioke has made a direct hit on Wake Island, pounding the tiny U.S. Pacific territory with catastrophic winds of up to 300 kilometers an hour.

Ioke is the strongest central Pacific typhoon in at least 12 years. Forecasters expect the “monster” storm to submerge Wake Island and destroy everything on it that is not made of concrete.

Wake is home to a U.S. Air Force base and a scientific outpost, roughly midway between Hawaii and Japan.

The eye of the typhoon skirted the north edge of the coral atoll Thursday. The U.S. Air Force had already evacuated all of the island’s 188 residents to Hawaii, 3,700 kilometers across the Pacific.

The residents – Air Force personnel and American and Thai contractors – left Monday aboard two U.S. C-17 Globemaster planes. It was the first time the territory was evacuated in nearly 30 years.

More about Wake Island’s history in pictures from Fox News.

31 Aug 2006 by Current Events Environment

A Sudden Ocean Heat Loss

We are in the midst of global warming and yet the ocean temperatures are cooling? Is this correct? New data in a soon-to-be-published paper indicate the opposite of what might be expected during a period of increasing Earth surface temperatures: the top 2500 feet of the ocean lost a tremendous amount of heat between from 2003 through 2005—about 20% of all the heat gained in the last half-century. Considering the thermal inertia the oceans must have, this is astonishing! (Image: Global Ocean Surface Temperatures – courtesy NASA)

A good article on this topic may be found at World Climate Report: A Sea Change in Global Warming?

The sudden cooling may be related to Earth’s Ocean Conveyor Belt, the phenomenon popularized by the movie “The Day After Tomorrow.” Nobody really knows though.

Just when the global warming alarmists are making their case against evil mankind warming the Earth, this has to happen – tsk, tsk.

30 Aug 2006 by Environment Global Warming

Correlating Sunspots to Global Climate

Unfamiliar with Solar phenomena? Read what the Sun is and how it does what it does:

More about Why Solar fusion activity is the primary 
mechanism for climate change on Earth — not people!

This is a study in two observations made over the last 400 years: observed annual sunspot numbers and derived global temperatures. The sunspot numbers were recorded by various solar observers since Galileo‘s time. Temperatures have been derived from scientific evidence such as ice and earth cores, and several other valid methods. These were collected by various climate studies and were compiled by NASA scientists to produce an animation of Earth’s climate changes over 399 years between 1599 and 1998.

Climate Change

First look at the NASA video that chronicles global temperature since 1599 AD:

Red indicates warmer surface temperature while blue indicates cooler. The little year clock, although difficult to read, ticks off the years in rapid succession from 1599 through 1998.

You should notice two things as you watch the animation:

  1. The Earth has generally been getting warmer
  2. Extended periods of cooler temperatures have occurred

Annual Sunspot Count

Next, look at this graphic depicting solar cycles and the number of sunspots counted each year:

You should notice two things as you observe this graphic:

  1. The sunspot count per year has been getting generally larger
  2. Extended periods of low sunspot numbers have occurred

Correlating The Two Phenomena Together

And finally, look at this two-minute presentation that ties both observations together:


©2006 Cap’n Bob

A few additional conclusions:

  1. The media will print or broadcast sensationalized headlines to sell copy regardless of scientific value
  2. The media will print or broadcast manipulated science with half-truths and invalid conclusions to damage politicians with whom they do not agree
  3. Politicians seize on these unverified claims in order to blame their opponents
  4. Uneducated/uninformed people are as gullible as ever

References

Update: Read about how cosmic rays interact with solar flux to alter Earth’s climate in a subsequent article.

26 Aug 2006 by Environment Global Warming Science

Behind the Rainbow Curtains

Lately, I’ve been studying solar phenomena because I think the topic is so critical to understanding the natural processes that affect global weather and climate. An interesting segué from the weather aspect, however, is into the subject of auroras – Aurora Borealis in the North and Aurora Australis in the South. What causes them?

Occasionally, we see auroras in Southern California, but it’s an extremely rare sight. The last auroral display I can remember seeing was way back in 1962, although other people have seen them several times since then. The UCLA webcam on Mount Wilson near Los Angeles recorded the image to the right on March 30, 2001.

Anyhow, back to the topic of what causes these elusive Rainbow Curtains — from SOHO and NASA — Space Weather:
Continue reading…

26 Aug 2006 by Astronomy Environment Science

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