Cap'n Bob & the Damsel

Environment

A Century of Global Temperature Data Proves – Not Much

I read a recent article at the CO2 Science website entitled “One Hundred Years of Global Temperature Change: 1906-2005.” The article discusses the conclusions of a study made to try and determine if 20th century warming is the result of an anthropomorphic-related temperature increase.

Working with 2249 globally-distributed monthly temperature records covering the period 1906-2005, which they obtained from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the authors evaluated “to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation.”

What was learned:

Ludecke et al. report that “the mean of all stations shows 0.58°C global warming from 1906 to 2005,” but they say that “if we consider only those stations with a population of under 1000 and below 800 meters above sea level, this figure drops to 0.41°C.” In addition, they note that “about a quarter of all records show falling temperatures,” which in itself, in their words, “is an indication that the observed temperature series are predominantly natural fluctuations,” where the word natural means that “we do not have within a defined confidence interval a definitely positive anthropogenic contribution.” And continuing to explore this aspect of their analysis, they evaluated – with a confidence interval of 95% – the probability that the observed global warming from 1906 to 2005 was a natural fluctuation, finding that probability to lie “between 40% and 70%, depending on the station’s characteristics,” while “for the period 1906 to 1955 the probabilities are arranged between 80% and 90% and for 1956 to 2005 between 60% and 70%.”

It’s interesting that this study went to the trouble to factor out the Urban Heat Island effect by removing densely populated areas from the results. Of course, the alarmists try and capitalize on the UHI effect to support their erroneous beliefs.

05 Apr 2012 by Environment Global Warming Science

Another Unknown Bird

river-birdz.jpgOf all the millions of bird species seen worldwide, we have been able to identify most of those we see in our neck of the woods, except for a small number we can’t find in printed or on-line references. We’re still looking to find the species of this bird.

This week, during our visit to some friends who live on the Colorado River near Parker, AZ, we watched flocks of these black and yellow birds zipping from one treetop to the next. This is yet another mystery bird that does not seem to be listed in our references. Any clues? Click on the image to enlarge.

30 Mar 2012 by Arizona Critters Environment

Vernal Equinox 2012

first-cardinal.jpgToday is the first day of spring. Right on cue, we saw this cardinal perched on the power pole across the road on Sunday. He was whistling the cardinal mating call which is considerably more musical than the bird’s normal metallic “chip” sound. We assume this handsome fellow is looking for a mate.

Image: Male cardinal perched calling for a mate. Click on the image to enlarge.

We’re hoping that this cardinal and his mate settle nearby. We had two or more cardinal couples frequenting the area last spring and summer.

20 Mar 2012 by Astronomy Critters Environment Photography

Late Winter Local Snowfall

local-snow.jpg

We were surprised to see last night’s forecast for possible snow as low as 2500 feet. No snow stuck to the ground here (if any fell at all) but the snow level in the local mountains looks to be as low as 3500 feet. I took this image from the hill behind our house looking north. Click on the image to enlarge.

19 Mar 2012 by Arizona Environment

CO2 Global Warming: Proven or Unproven?

Unproven wins hands-down.

From CO2 Science:

Anthropogenic-CO2-Induced Global Warming: Proven or Unproven?
hyper-stuck.jpg

The fact that there has been little to no net warming of the earth over the past dozen or so years, in almost all of the global temperature databases that are maintained by the various research groups that study this important subject, has led many people to suggest that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are not having the large global warming effect the world’s climate alarmists assign to it. And this fact has led many climate alarmists to devise complex explanations for this dilemma.

On 12 August 2011, for example, Science published Solomon et al.’s contribution to this effort, which begins with the statement that “understanding climate changes on time scales of years, decades, centuries, or more requires determining the effects of all external drivers of radiative forcing of earth’s climate, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, natural aerosols, and solar forcing, as well as natural internal variability.” The result of their effort in this undertaking was the finding that “near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period [since AD 2000] of about -0.1watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred,” although they emphasize that additional contributions to global climate variations of the past and future decades such as from solar variations, natural variability, or other processes “are not ruled out by this study,” which pretty much means that the study does not mean very much, and that it can thus be forgotten within the context within which it was conducted.

. . .

Clearly, the weight of real-world evidence continues to suggest that it is the recurrent millennial-scale cycling of earth’s mean global air temperature that has been responsible for the bulk of the warming of the 20th century, which could yet continue its upward course, level out, or begin a slow decline; for this phenomenon has created such warmings and subsequent coolings time and time again without any help from mankind. And if it’s done so before – innumerable times, in fact – it can do it again. In fact, it has actually got to be expected that it would do so, and at about this point in earth’s history.

[more]

06 Mar 2012 by Environment Global Warming

Solar Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

cme-still.jpgI just love these 3D colorized graphics that depict the motion of solar events in space. This one shows a CME directed almost directly toward Earth and Mars. Click on the image at right to view the animated CME path as forecast.

From SpaceWeather.com:

CME TARGETS EARTH, MARS:

A coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from the sun on Feb. 24th appears set to hit both Earth and Mars. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should reach Earth today, Feb. 26th around 1330 UT, followed by Mars two days later. Click to view the CME’s animated forecast track.

26 Feb 2012 by Aerospace Astronomy Environment

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