Science

Venus Transit of the Sun Tomorrow – June 5, 2012

transitTomorrow is the rare solar transit of planet Venus. Even though we’re going to be running errands tomorrow afternoon, we’re taking our cameras, solar filters and eclipse shades in an attempt to witness and record the phenomenon. The event starts at a little after three our time and will still be in progress at sundown. We will be home when Venus reaches the halfway point across the solar disc.

We’re hoping to get imagery similar to the image at the right. We will be using the same cameras and techniques used for the May 20 annular eclipse.

Here’s some information I posted last month:

There is a listing of transit contact events for US cities (and another for international). The closest city listed to our location is Phoenix, AZ. The first event is when the disc of Venus first touches the solar disc occurs at 15:05:55 (Arizona Time); the sun will be 54° above the horizon. The second event is when the other edge of Venus crosses the edge of the sun and occurs at 15:23:32; the sun will be at 50° of elevation. The last transit contact listed is greatest transit which, I assume, is when Venus is halfway across its path over the sun; that occurs at 18:25:24 when the sun is at 13° of elevation.

There is supposed to be a live webcast covering the event. Remember – if you miss this transit, the next one will not be until the year 2117.

June 5, 2012 Solar Transit of Venus

Sebastian posted a bleg yesterday asking about observing the 2012 transit of Venus across the solar disk.Since I have been preparing for the annular eclipse, I posted a comment there pointing to my recent experiences with solar photography. His post got me to look up some information about the transit since we wanted to observe it here, too.

I found the NASA map of global visibility (Image courtesy of NASA) Going to the link helps you to decode the map elements (I,II,III,IV). Click on the map to enlarge.

transit-map.jpg

There is a listing of transit contact events for US cities (and another for international). The closest city listed to our location is Phoenix, AZ. The first event is when the disc of Venus first touches the solar disc occurs at 15:05:55 (Arizona Time); the sun will be 54° above the horizon. The second event is when the other edge of Venus crosses the edge of the sun and occurs at 15:23:32; the sun will be at 50° of elevation. The last transit contact listed is greatest transit which, I assume, is when Venus is halfway across its path over the sun; that occurs at 19:25:24 when the sun is at 13° of elevation.

Nobody in the 48 contiguous states can witness the entire transit because it will not be over until after sundown. It will be entirely visible in Alaska and Hawaii, however.

So, I guess we will keep the eclipse shades and solar filters handy for another three weeks or so. We wouldn’t want to miss this transit since the next one will not be until December of 2117.

The Titanic 100 Years Later

stern.jpegDamsel and I watched the interesting two-hour documentary “Titanic at 100: Mystery Solved” this evening. It was the story of one of the latest expeditions to document the disaster and to try and determine the actual cause of the sinking of the RMS Titanic (Damsel says “It was the @$#! iceberg – get over it!”).

Underwater image of Titanic’s Stern on the ocean floor

All that aside, it was very interesting. The team of scientists, oceanographers and archaeologists sought to explore and map the entire debris field at the bottom of the North Atlantic. Ultimately, their conclusion agreed with Damsel’s assertion; the accident was a result of the overwhelming force of the vessel striking iceberg. There was no actual fault in the construction and design and the crew was following standard procedures and because of unusually calm conditions, they were unable to see the iceberg until it was too late to maneuver the immense vessel around it.

If you’re a history and archaeology buff or interested in the technologies used by the expedition, we recommend you watch the documentary. We saw the premiere tonight, but I’m sire it will come on History Channel again.

A Century of Global Temperature Data Proves – Not Much

I read a recent article at the CO2 Science website entitled “One Hundred Years of Global Temperature Change: 1906-2005.” The article discusses the conclusions of a study made to try and determine if 20th century warming is the result of an anthropomorphic-related temperature increase.

Working with 2249 globally-distributed monthly temperature records covering the period 1906-2005, which they obtained from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the authors evaluated “to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation.”

What was learned:

Ludecke et al. report that “the mean of all stations shows 0.58°C global warming from 1906 to 2005,” but they say that “if we consider only those stations with a population of under 1000 and below 800 meters above sea level, this figure drops to 0.41°C.” In addition, they note that “about a quarter of all records show falling temperatures,” which in itself, in their words, “is an indication that the observed temperature series are predominantly natural fluctuations,” where the word natural means that “we do not have within a defined confidence interval a definitely positive anthropogenic contribution.” And continuing to explore this aspect of their analysis, they evaluated – with a confidence interval of 95% – the probability that the observed global warming from 1906 to 2005 was a natural fluctuation, finding that probability to lie “between 40% and 70%, depending on the station’s characteristics,” while “for the period 1906 to 1955 the probabilities are arranged between 80% and 90% and for 1956 to 2005 between 60% and 70%.”

It’s interesting that this study went to the trouble to factor out the Urban Heat Island effect by removing densely populated areas from the results. Of course, the alarmists try and capitalize on the UHI effect to support their erroneous beliefs.

Commemorative Eclipse Shades

shades.jpgI checked the PO Box today and lo and behold, the custom Eclipse Shades had arrived. The minimum order for this item is 25 each. No problem – if there are people at the campground that need a pair, we’ll hand ’em out. We will also hand out some to our Wickenburg neighbors who will get a partial eclipse that day if they stay here in town.

I tried to hold one of the lens filters in front of the camera today, and that didn’t work out, so I’ll be in the market for a lens filter. I’ll also need one for Damsel’s SLR. Since the eclipse will occur near sunset, perhaps a filter may not be required.

Meanwhile, the new travel trailer will be ready for us to take possession tomorrow. We will probably tow it home and park it in our RV drive while Damsel and I get it ready for the eclipse trip. We’re also planning to tow it later this month to our friends’ place in Earp, CA, down by the Colorado River near Parker, AZ. That will be a good shakedown for us.