Hurricane Florence Coming – Lies to Follow

florence-et-al.gif

Hurricane Florence (upper left of center in the GOES EAST animation above) is headed directly for the East Coast of the United States, probably making landfall in the Carolinas. The other two cyclones southeast of Florence are Hurricane Isaac, likely to be a problem when it strikes the Lesser Antilles, and Helene, which is forecast to drift northward over the open Atlantic and dissipate.

Florence will likely be the worst disaster to hit the Carolinas and Virginia in decades. It is forecast to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane and will be moving slow, thus prolonging the wind, rainfall and flooding. Recovery is going to be the most expensive in history for that area of the country.

Before, during and after, the alarmist Greenbats will begin their litany of misguided blame of man-made climate change. This is always predictable because of them never letting a crisis go to waste.

Pioneer meteorologist and extraordinary weather forecaster Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics penned an article Hurricane Florence: How We Got Here. These are some of the remarks he made in the article:

If I am right, this will be the most costly disaster for the Carolinas and Virginias on record. In addition, given our winter forecast, we expect the core of the cold and snow, relative to average, to be near these same areas, which for them means this could very well be the most extreme six-month period on record. A hurricane as strong as Hugo or Hazel, flooding rains due to Florence’s slow movement, the possibility of an exceptional winter — you can’t get much more extreme than that.

. . .

The 2018 Climate Ambulance Chaser Hurricane Blamefest is underway. Hopefully, if you have been following along with, you can see that this threat was a long time coming and has perfectly natural explanations. The setup for this started quite a while ago, and so I will keep clients updated and respond when called upon — and also sit back as the noise and fury hit a deafening pitch this week.

But remember the bottom line: Florence was predicted in advance, and the misery this is going to cause should be front and center. Hopefully, the response is ready to meet the challenge, which for the Carolinas and Virginias is liable to be the costliest on record when the flooding is factored in.

Joe has an excellent book he has written called The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore–And Others. Although I haven’t read the book yet (I plan to soon), I am sure it calls out the Greenbats for what they are – LIARS!

Wandering Minstrel Problems

flame-punisher.gifOur other blog website, The Wandering Minstrel is currently experiencing problems. Something in the WordPress blog platform has become corrupted. I have asked for help from the server host, but they haven’t pointed me in any helpful direction. I intend to keep trying, but I won’t be able to devote a lot of time to the solution (life gets in the way).

In the meantime, I have put up a temporary page with a blurb explaining the difficulty and a link back to this site. None of the past blog content is available. If you have tried to access Minstrel over the past couple of days you may have seen an HTTP error 500 “Internal Server Error.”

I get the same error when trying to log in as administrator, so I am effectively locked out of my own blog. I have access via FTP protocol, so I am trying to solve things via a back door method. I have not worked with the internal structure of WordPress for several years, so it may be a slow learning process. Fortunately, I have this and a couple of other blogs still functioning that I may be able to compare the corrupted site to how things are supposed work.

Anything that we may have posted over there on Minstrel will get posted here instead. If things get too difficult and confusing, we may throw in the towel on that blog and confine our posting here. We shall see.

UPDATE: The Wandering Minstrel – Signing Off

From the minstrel site:

It has been a good run blogging here for the last Ten Plus years. I worked with the Blog Host to try and resolve the problems with the WordPress installation, but we were unsuccessful in determining the exact cause of the crash.

This page will remain here until I can fix all the links and references to this site that I have created elsewhere in the blogosphere and replace the email addresses with ones that do not use the reynosawatch url. After those are complete, I am going to terminate the host account.

We will continue to post stuff on our favorite topics on the Cap’n Bob website. Thanks to those folks that came here to read our stuff.

Devil’s Tongue Cactus Flower

Devil’s Tongue

Our Devil’s Tongue cactus had its first open flower today. Flowers open during the Second Spring Arizona pseudo-season. I snapped this in the rock and cactus garden west of the house this morning. Several bees were busily competing for the nectar. One of them is visible in the photo.

Ferocactus latispinus is the binomial nomenclature for what is commonly called the Devil’s Tongue cactus. Wikipedia offers the following information about this cactus:

Ferocactus latispinus is a species of barrel cactus native to Mexico. It grows as a single globular light green cactus reaching the dimensions of 30 cm (12 in) in height and 40 cm (16 in) across, with 21 acute ribs. Its spines range from reddish to white in color and are flattened and reach 4 or 5 cm long. Flowering is in late autumn or early winter. The funnel-shaped flowers are purplish or yellowish and reach 4 cm long, and are followed by oval-shaped scaled fruit which reach 2.5 cm (1 in) long.

Hardy Queen of the Night Cactus

Queen of the Night CactusThe Queen of the Night (Peniocereus greggii) cactus that grows on the slope of the hill on the west boundary of our property has had some predatory setbacks, namely something eating the green part of the stems. Regardless, it has rebounded quite nicely by growing three new stems, two longer and one shorter, over the course of the summer months.

It’s probably too late in the season to expect any flowers from this cactus, but the stems appear to be healthy. Hopefully, the predator wont be back again and maybe this cactus will flower next summer.

I found some interesting things about this cactus and it’s use for medicinal purposes in the University of Arizona arboretum pages:

Ethnobotany: Peniocereus greggii has some medicinal value and has also been used in religious ceremonies and ornamentals. Some of its medicinal benefits come from its tuberous roots which have been used to help treat diabetes and other maladies. The roots have also been used by the Tohono O’ Odham, when they boiled and drank the roots to help with respiratory problems, headaches, and digestion. The flowers have also been used in aromatherapy and ornamentally, due to it strong fragrance that some say smells like vanilla.

In the image above, the longest of the three new stems is about eight inches long. Click on the image to enlarge.

Never Forget Tribute – Epilog

never_ani.gifThe Never Forget animated graphic first appeared in August of 2005 and ran for thirteen years until August 2018. The estimated final count aggregated by the hit counter over the years was 94,945,312 hits. The average statistics for the entire lifetime amounted to approximately 20,000 hits per day, 833 hits per hour and 14 hits per minute. It’s hard to know the exact numbers since I never kept much of a record, but the peak hit rate might have been upwards of 1400 hits per hour at the time the counter passed 50 million hits.

The animation was originally inspired by an anonymously-produced PowerPoint slideshow making the rounds on the Internet and via emails after 9/11/2001. I prepared the animation using a Flash® compatible tool and began distribution in 2005 using a Javascript embedded in PHP script. At the time, my Web Hosting Provider imposed limited bandwidth so I limited the distribution of the graphic until I was approached by a Canadian couple who offered to host the graphic citing its importance. Eventually, my Web Host went unlimited bandwidth and I began hosting the graphic locally. Thanks to those patriotic Canadians for their help in getting it going.

Every once in a while back in my pre-retirement days, I would notice a website displaying the graphic that rubbed me the wrong way, but I let it slide until in early 2007 we saw our graphic displayed on an Islamic terrorist sympathetic website. A Jihadi professor at Kent State embedded our graphic in with his terrorist bullsh*t. I was pissed. I eventually figured out a way to embed some creative JavaScript lines into the distribution script which redirected any visitors to the offending jihadi website to a pro-American military website (I bet his jihadi buddies were frustrated with that 😉 ). Shortly after the redirection tactic, the jihadi website disappeared.

You might wonder why I did not wait until the hit counter passed 95 million. It was so close – only 54.688 more hits to go.Well, doing some quick estimates at the last known hit rate, it would have taken another eight months and probably more given the diminishing hit rate. It was just time to phase out the tribute.

We continue to be grateful for those patriotic sites who displayed the tribute. We hope that all patriotic Americans may NEVER FORGET!

Announcement: Never Forget Tribute Going Away Gone

UPDATE 08/05/2018: As of today, the Never Forget Tribute distribution has been disabled. The final count appears in the right sidebar for the time being.


nfsmall.jpgLast week, I ran a check to evaluate the increment rate of the Never Forget Tribute hit counter. The observed rate seemed to be much lower than the hit statistics displayed in the right sidebar column.

The hit counter itself is accurate in that each time the tribute is served up remotely, the count increments. The hits per hour and hits per day figures, however, are an estimate based on extrapolation from a given date in the past where the number of hits was known. I had a back-burner plan to write a script that would keep a running estimation of the hit rate, but that never came to fruition. And, now, it seems, that won’t be necessary.

I updated the estimating script to more accurately extrapolate the hit rate from a known count from a week ago, and, as you can see, the hit rate is quite a bit lower than what it had been in the past. There are probably several reasons for the decline in the hit rate:

  • several browser platforms have discontinued or reduced support for Flash® animations (i.e. Firefox, Chrome)
  • the shift from computers to smart phone platforms which have minimal or no support for Flash®
  • a general decrease in bloggers displaying the tribute

At any rate, we have decided to discontinue distribution of the Never Forget Tribute. It’s not that we have forgotten the terrorist attacks on America on September 11, 2001, but that circumstances indicate that tribute hits are asymptotically approaching a zero hit rate.

We will NEVER FORGET 9/11!

The termination of support will be accomplished in a couple of stages:

  1. Initially, we will attach a notice to the tribute stating our intentions and a link to this post.
  2. Finally, we will disable the scripts that are activated with each remote link.

I expect the initial state to go into effect this week. Depending on responses in the comments here (if any), I will deactivate the distribution within a month.

OPTIONAL – For those displaying the tribute, you may remove the code from your website as follows:

<script language="JavaScript" type="text/javascript" src="http://capnbob.us/graphics/never.php"></script>

The ffile name may also be never118.php or never100.php.

Cactus Flowers

Fishhook Cactus Flowers

Bishop’s Cap Flowers

During the spring and summer her in the desert, flowers opening on the various cacti keep us happy and my camera busy. I took these photos today of a little fishhook cactus with three flowers and my Bishop’s Cap with a bunch of open flowers. I didn’t bother to count them.

We continue to have our summer monsoons this week and the humidity really high. We can only stay outside for a limited time before retreating to the comfort of the cooler and drier air in our house.

Click on either image to enlarge.