Science

We’re Doomed (Again)

This article from Science Blog suggests that “human-induced climate changes” will affect tectonic plate activity. In the excerpt below, the authors frantically suggest that we will be experiencing unprecedented plate movement as a result of the evils of men:

The erosion caused by rainfall directly affects the movement of continental plates beneath mountain ranges, says a University of Toronto geophysicist — the first time science has raised the possibility that human-induced climate change could affect the deep workings of the planet.

From that description, one might expect that Earth may soon experience alternating earthquakes and hurricanes as mankind continues to cause devastation to the planet.

The article continues with more about the professor conducting the computer models:

“In geology, we have this idea that erosion’s going to affect merely the surface,” says Russell Pysklywec, a professor of geology who creates computer models where he can control how a range of natural processes can create and modify mountains over millions of years. Pysklywec conducts field research in the Southern Alps of New Zealand, where the mountains are high and geologically “young.” He found that when mountains are exposed to New Zealand-type rainfall (which causes one centimetre of erosion per year) compared to southern California-type rainfall (which erodes one-tenth of a centimetre or less), it profoundly changes the behaviour of the tectonic plates beneath the mountains. “These are tiny, tiny changes on the surface, but integrating them over geologic time scales affects the roots of the mountains, as opposed to just the top of them,” says Pysklywec. “It goes right down to the mantle thermal engine — the thing that’s actually driving plate tectonics. It’s fairly surprising — it hasn’t been shown before.”

Wait! Did he say “geologic time scales?” You mean this is going to take some time?

“As a concept, imagine blanketing the European Alps with a huge network of ordinary garden sprinklers. The results suggest that the subtle surface weathering caused by the light watering have the potential to shift the tectonic plates, although you would have to keep the water on for several million years.”

At this rate, we’re doomed to destroy our planet just in time for the Sun to blow up.

You may read the entire article: Climate change could affect tectonic plates

Also see Science Daily and the University of Toronto

The Next Great San Francisco Quake

Wednesday April 18, 1906 – 100 years ago today, a great earthquake occurred along the San Andreas fault, the epicenter of which was quite close to the City of San Francisco. More recently, other earthquakes have occurred in the same area: 1979 Coyote Lake, 1984 Morgan Hill and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. All of these facts are well-known, and aren’t necessarily new news. Not until some recent work that is, by geologist David Wald and associates. The paper, entitled “Source Study of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake,” compares the events using data from a 100+ year old seismograph that just happened to record both earthquakes.

Below – This is the seismogram data showing both quakes:

One great value of old seismographs is that we can make quantitative comparisons of 1906 with the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Fortunately, the same seismograph instrument at Gottingen, Germany was operating during both earthquakes.

If the Loma Prieta (M~7.0) trace looks smaller, it is because the 1906 (M~7.8) earthquake released approximately 16 times more energy:

Because we have much more extensive information about the ground motion that accompanied the 1989 earthquake, we can work backwards and infer what the ground motions must have been like in 1906.

We expect that the shaking in the next 1906-type earthquake will probably not be much more intense than the shaking felt in 1989 near the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake, but it will last longer — perhaps 45 to 60 seconds or more. Strong shaking in the Loma Prieta earthquake lasted only about 15 seconds. In a repeat of the 1906 earthquake, the region experiencing intense shaking will also be much more widespread than in the Loma Prieta event, affecting areas all along the rupture.

Studying the little Loma Prieta pips on the upper traces and recalling the massive travesty that was the 1989 event, makes one wonder how bad it will be if the energy of the 1906 event were to occur today. My estimation is that damage and casualties would be 100 times worse than 1989.

Now, I don’t want to get into predicting the future, but when (not if) this quake happens in San Francisco, and the devastation is on an order of magnitude to compare to New Orleans last year, just watch the weeping, wailing Friscoites blame the administration for everything that happened – that is, unless the administration happens to be a Democratic one.

Paraphrasing the Bard: “What fools these liberals be.”

Click on WikiPedia for more information about the 1906 event.

Check out Today’s Eclipse

NASA Shared this video of the solar eclipse today from Turkey. Check it out!

NASA Shares Solar Eclipse With the World
NASA gave people a front row seat to today’s total solar eclipse, thanks to a partnership with the University of California at Berkeley and the Exploratorium. A streaming webcast brought the eclipse — visible along a path from South America to Africa to Asia — to schools and museums and computer desktops worldwide.

VIEW ECLIPSE VIDEOS: + Windows | + Real

The eclipse coverage was part of Sun-Earth Day, celebrated every year to help everyone better understand how our sun interacts with the Earth and other planets in the solar system. This year’s theme, “Eclipse: In a Different Light” shows how eclipses have inspired people to observe and understand the Sun-Earth-Moon system.

The Great Robot Race

The Great Robot Race will air on NOVA Tuesday Night (March 28, 2005). If you can’t watch it then, it will be available on-line Wednesday. Not only are Aerospace concerns competing for DoD DARPA funds, but some scrappy smaller outfits will be involved. Team entrants named “Sandstorm” and “Ghostrider” and 10 others will race across the Mojave Desert to prove their viability as robotic ground vehicles. Speed isn’t the main objective for the DARPA award.

NOVA’s ‘The Great Robot Race’ airs Tuesday

Join NOVA for an exclusive backstage pass to the DARPA Grand Challenge—a raucous race for robotic, driverless vehicles sponsored by the Pentagon, which awards a $2 million purse to the winning team. Armed with artificial intelligence, laser-guided vision, GPS navigation, and 3-D mapping systems, the contenders are some of the world’s most advanced robots. Yet even their formidable technology and mechanical prowess may not be enough to overcome the grueling 130-mile course through Nevada’s desert terrain. From concept to construction to the final competition, “The Great Robot Race” delivers the absorbing inside story of clever engineers and their unyielding drive to create a champion, capturing the only aerial footage that exists of the Grand Challenge.

Image: Some of the Robots entered in the race. NOVA

More Climate Hype Debunked

World Climate Report takes on the non-scientific hype being put out by climatological extremists in this very good article:

World Climate Report » No News is Bad News

There is not much new in a collection of articles about global warming and sea level rise in the latest issue of Science. As such, it is mostly recycled and repackaged information that the head of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Donald Kennedy, can take down from New York Avenue in DC to Capitol Hill, to scare politicians into doing what it wants, which is an immediate cap on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide.

Never mind that even a 25% reduction will have an undetectable effect on the rate of global temperature rise in the foreseeable future, and that it will cost a lot. Science crammed its March 24th issue with five articles (including commentary and editorials) devoted to melting ice and sea level rise—including one (Overpeck et al., 2006) which proclaims “[I]t is highly likely that the ice sheet changes described in this paper [leading to an—egad—global sea level a rise of 12-18 feet] could be avoided if humans were to significantly reduce emissions early in the current century” is hardly surprising.

[read more]

Intelligent Design?

In a universe where entropy prevails, it’s interesting to see something like this:

SPACE.com — Cosmic ‘DNA’: Double Helix Spotted in Space

Magnetic forces at the center of the galaxy have twisted a nebula into the shape of DNA, a new study reveals.

Image: Double Helix Nebula – Credit: M. Morris, UCLA

The double helix shape is commonly seen inside living organisms, but this is the first time it has been observed in the cosmos.

“Nobody has ever seen anything like that before in the cosmic realm,” said the study’s lead author Mark Morris of UCLA. “Most nebulae are either spiral galaxies full of stars or formless amorphous conglomerations of dust and gas—space weather. What we see indicates a high degree of order.”

[ read more ]

It turns out that this phenomenon may be an effect caused by a large gravitational mass orbiting our galaxy center; the gravitational attraction causes the dust and gas in the nebula to twirl around every 10,000 years or so, as the nebula slowly drifts away from galaxy center on a line roughly perpendicular to the galactic plane. This theory is consistent with the observations.

Picture the Blue Angels in an air show doing formation aileron rolls with smoke jettisoning from the F-18s. The resulting double or triple helix is a real crowd pleaser.

Fireball Global Warming Theory

Now, this is an interesting take on what might be causing temperatures to rise on Earth. A Russian scientist disputes that fossil fuel emissions are responsible for the increase of greenhouse gasses, while making claims that the Tunguska Event that occurred over Siberia in 1908 stripped the upper atmosphere of ice crystals and is the cause for recent warming.

Excerpt from Science Blog:

Russian blames global warming on 1908 Tunguska Event

A new theory to explain global warming was revealed at a meeting at the University of Leicester (UK) and is being considered for publication in the journal “Science First Hand”. The controversial theory has nothing to do with burning fossil fuels and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. According to Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the apparent rise in average global temperature recorded by scientists over the last hundred years or so could be due to atmospheric changes that are not connected to human emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of natural gas and oil. Shaidurov explained how changes in the amount of ice crystals at high altitude could damage the layer of thin, high altitude clouds found in the mesosphere that reduce the amount of warming solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface.

Image: Tunguska Fireball – www.espacial.org

Shaidurov has used a detailed analysis of the mean temperature change by year for the last 140 years and explains that there was a slight decrease in temperature until the early twentieth century. This flies in the face of current global warming theories that blame a rise in temperature on rising carbon dioxide emissions since the start of the industrial revolution. Shaidurov, however, suggests that the rise, which began between 1906 and 1909, could have had a very different cause, which he believes was the massive Tunguska Event, which rocked a remote part of Siberia, northwest of Lake Baikal on the 30th June 1908.

[ . . . ]

The most powerful greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapour, [Shaidurov] says, “Human activities have little direct control over its atmospheric abundance, which is controlled instead by the worldwide balance between evaporation from the oceans and precipitation.”

[read more]

Of course, the cycle of precipitation and evaporation largely is influenced by the Sun. While I agree with the good doctor’s analysis that fossil fuel has little to do with global climate, I respectfully submit that noctilucent ice is widely evident in the atmosphere today; moreover, should ice have been displaced in 1908, it would have had plenty of time to reconstitute in 98 years’ time. Yet, this is an interesting concept, and generates both insights and questions.