This is the time of year that our usual coastal fog is replaced by upper clouds. When I was a kid, our family called this “buttermilk” skies. I snapped this picture a couple of days ago during my noontime walk.
Environment
Watching the Sun in STEREO
The twin spacecraft mission STEREO blasted off from Cape Canaveral in a nighttime launch last night. STEREO, which stands for Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory, is a two-spacecraft mission to observe solar activity from two vantage points in orbit around the sun. the spacecraft, identified as A (ahead) and B (behind), will head for the Moon to get a gravitational “slingshot” into orbit. B will be flung into orbit behind the Earth while A will return to the Moon for another boost into orbit ahead of Earth. This separation in space provides a unique view of the Sun from orbits with a similar distance from the Sun as the Earth, while imaging from points away from our planet. The spacecraft will assume their stations near Lagrange points L4 and L5.
Image right: STEREO Night Launch – courtesy NASA
Sea Level vs. Global Temperature
In a previous article, I established that the average global temperature has generally risen over the past century. The graphic to the right (courtesy NOAA) clearly shows this temperature increase. There is little doubt that the planet is warming and that global temperature trends over the past 400 years have been directly proportional to observed solar activity. Sunspot counts are high when temperatures increase, and
low when temperatures decrease.
The graphic to the left (Courtesy CO2 Science) shows sea level and rate of sea level change over the past 200 years or so. A quick observation shows sea levels decreased from 1800 to 1860 at which time a minimum level reversed. Note also that the rate of sea level change (the bottom line on the graph) turned toward a higher rate of change just prior to that time. Note also that the rate of change went from negative to positive at the same time the minimum sea level occurred. You can also see that sea levels have steadily increased during the portion of the graph where the rate of change is positive. Finally, note that the rate of change peaked out around 1950 and dropped into a trough and then another peak, lower than the 1950 peak, around 1998 or so.
What’s the point? Well, if global warming is melting the ice caps and glaciers, one might expect that the rate of sea level change would also be increasing — but that’s not true according to the graph above. Since 1950 or so, global temperatures increased but the rate of sea level rise has not increased. Moreover there is considerable evidence that Antartic ice sheets are becoming thicker.
The matter of sea level change is discussed by the editors at CO2 Science who conclude the editorial with the following insightful remarks:
Clearly, either something is drastically wrong with climate-alarmist theory, or something is drastically wrong with the pertinent real-world data. Although many people choose to believe the theory over the data – or they promote the theory in spite of believing the data (or they simply ignore the data) for philosophical or political reasons – we find it much more compelling – and satisfying – to both believe the data and act in harmony with that belief.
So we ask you what we ask ourselves almost every day: what do you believe? … why do you believe it? … and how do you act in light of that belief?
Finally, quoting the famous author Michael Crichton . . .
“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.”
Under the Harvest Moon
Depending upon where you are in the world, the Harvest Moon will take place on either this Thursday or Friday. The occurrence of the Harvest Moon in October happens about one in four years. The latest a Harvest Moon can occur is October 7th or 8th, depending on your relative position to the date line.
The Harvest Moon gets it’s name because it happens at the beginning of harvesting season in the Northern Hemisphere. Since modern agriculture is not as dependent on the light of the Harvest Moon, it has become a symbol for the beginning of the festive and colorful fall season. Halloween isn’t too far in the future and Thanksgiving Day will be here before you know it.
And speaking of moonlight, did you know that most people cannot perceive color nor can they read by the light of the moon? See NASA’s Strange Moonlight for some interesting information on the Harvest Moon and human eyesight in the moonlight.
No More Major Hurricanes in ’06
Researchers at Colorado State University are forecasting that no more major hurricanes will make landfall for the remainder of the 2006 hurricane season.
From Colorado State University:
FORT COLLINS – Developing El Nino conditions in the central and eastern Pacific have led the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State to continue to call for below-average activity for the remainder of the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane season.
The forecasting team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray today released a new report that calls for two more named storms, one more hurricane and no more intense or major (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes for the remainder of the hurricane season (October-November). With the observed activity through September 2006 of nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, a total of 11 named storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic basin during 2006 with six of these predicted to become hurricanes. Two major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater have already formed, and the forecast team does not expect any more major hurricane formations this year.
Inset: Dr. Gray and PhD candidate Klotzbach (photo credit CSU)
There were a couple of interesting FAQs on their website:
Q: Why are there fewer hurricanes at this time in 2006 than there were in 2005?
A: The 2005 hurricane season was very active, especially during the early part of the season (June-July). Although we believe the 2006 hurricane season will end up being close to the average season that occurred between 1950 and 2000, conditions for hurricane development are not as favorable this year as they were at this time last year. Some of the conditions that are less favorable this year are:
- Cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures
- Dryer tropical Atlantic mid-level atmosphere
- Higher tropical Atlantic sea level pressures
- Stronger tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear
- Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific, possibly indicating the development of El Niño conditions this fall/winter.
Q: We’ve had a lot more activity in the Atlantic since 1995. Is global warming the cause of this increased activity?
A: The Atlantic basin tends to go through periods of about 25-35 years with heightened major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane activity and then similar periods of about 25-35 years with less activity. We believe that these multi-decadal variations are mostly due to changes in large-scale ocean circulations referred to as the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation.
How inconvenient this must be for global warming alarmists!
An interesting related article “Hurricane Data Not Cooperating,” from World Climate Report discusses how the hurricane cycle works and that global warming is not involved.
Wake Island Aftermath
This looks a lot better than I imagined. The Coast Guard flyover of Wake Island (post-typhoon Ioke) shows the island’s man-made artifacts survived the super typhoon in fair shape.
Damage on Wake less than feared, flyover shows
A Coast Guard flyover of Wake Island Sept. 2 shows little apparent damage from Super Typhoon Ioke around the runway and taxiway, officials said. (U.S. Coast Guard photos)
West Coast Tropical Storms
Is Southern California about to get a rare weather event? Some meteorologists think that Hurricane John, currently rampaging through Cabo San Lucas, may go as far north as Los Angeles.
From Wikipedia:
1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm
The 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, once a hurricane, was the only Eastern Pacific tropical storm to hit California in known history. The only other tropical cyclone to directly affect California is the 1858 San Diego Hurricane.
Storm History
On September 15, a tropical depression formed off the coast of Panama. It quickly strengthened into a hurricane. It tracked northward, instead of the usual westward movement of a typical Eastern Pacific hurricane. The hurricane likely was strong, as it needed to maintain its winds to a northerly latitude. The hurricane’s minimum measured pressure of 28.67 in Hg occurred on September 22. An upper level trough turned it to the northeast, where it weakened due to the cool waters.
Shortly before making landfall on September 25, it weakened to a tropical storm. The storm still managed to hit Long Beach, California as a 50 mph tropical storm, making it the only tropical cyclone in recorded history to hit the state of California. The storm quickly weakened over land, and likely dissipated within a day or two.
My Mom was a 19-year-old newlywed living in Long Beach at the time. She used to tell me about the great hurricane of ’39 and embellish her recount with tales of power blackouts with shutters and screen doors blown off of her house.