{"id":4914,"date":"2012-04-05T18:25:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-06T01:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/2012\/04\/05\/a-century-of-global-temperature-data-proves-not-much\/"},"modified":"2012-04-05T18:32:37","modified_gmt":"2012-04-06T01:32:37","slug":"a-century-of-global-temperature-data-proves-not-much","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/2012\/04\/05\/a-century-of-global-temperature-data-proves-not-much\/","title":{"rendered":"A Century of Global Temperature Data Proves &#8211; Not Much"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"right\"><script src=\"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/globalwarming\/hoax.php\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>I read a recent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.co2science.org\/articles\/V15\/N13\/C2.php\">article<\/a> at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.co2science.org\/\">CO2 Science website<\/a> entitled &#8220;One Hundred Years of Global Temperature Change: 1906-2005.&#8221; The article discusses the conclusions of a study made to try and determine if 20th century warming is the result of an anthropomorphic-related temperature increase. <\/p>\n<p>Working with 2249 globally-distributed monthly temperature records covering the period 1906-2005, which they obtained from NASA&#8217;s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the authors evaluated &#8220;to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>What was learned:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ludecke et al. report that &#8220;the mean of all stations shows 0.58\u00b0C global warming from 1906 to 2005,&#8221; but they say that <strong>&#8220;if we consider only those stations with a population of under 1000 and below 800 meters above sea level, this figure drops to 0.41\u00b0C.&#8221;<\/strong> In addition, they note that &#8220;about a quarter of all records show falling temperatures,&#8221; which in itself, in their words, &#8220;is an indication that the observed temperature series are predominantly natural fluctuations,&#8221; where the word natural means that &#8220;we do not have within a defined confidence interval a definitely positive anthropogenic contribution.&#8221; And continuing to explore this aspect of their analysis, they evaluated &#8211; with a confidence interval of 95% &#8211; the probability that the observed global warming from 1906 to 2005 was a natural fluctuation, finding that probability to lie &#8220;between 40% and 70%, depending on the station&#8217;s characteristics,&#8221; while &#8220;for the period 1906 to 1955 the probabilities are arranged between 80% and 90% and for 1956 to 2005 between 60% and 70%.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting that this study went to the trouble to factor out the <a href=\"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/2010\/04\/13\/anthropogenic-warming-its-true\/\">Urban Heat Island<\/a> effect by removing densely populated areas from the results. Of course, the alarmists try and capitalize on the UHI effect to support their erroneous beliefs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I read a recent article at the CO2 Science website entitled &#8220;One Hundred Years of Global Temperature Change: 1906-2005.&#8221; The article discusses the conclusions of a&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":190,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,42,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","category-global-warming","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/190"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4914\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/capnbob.us\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}